The environmental crisis is increasing risks to security and peace worldwide, notably in countries that are already fragile.
Indicators of insecurity such as the number of conflicts, the number of hungry people and military expenditure are rising; so are indicators of environmental decline, climate change, biodiversity, pollution and other areas. In combination, the security and environmental crises are creating compound, cascading, emergent, systemic and existential risks. Without profound changes in approach by institutions of authority, risks will inevitably proliferate quickly.
According to the Sipri Research Institute, a dangerous mix of environmental and security crises poses complex risks to world peace.
In a report released on Monday, Stockholm-based peace researchers warned that decision-makers were not yet ready for this “new era of risk”. It presents a bleak picture of the future global security situation.
The report shows how environmental crises – climate change, resource scarcity, species extinction – can interact with other security crises, such as the Corona epidemic. Former Swedish Foreign Minister Margo Wallstrոմm, EU Commissioner for the Environment, writes in the preface: “The mixture is toxic, deeply harmful. And the institutions that have the power to find solutions are waking up very slowly. ”
The number of conflicts is growing
“Many experts claim that we are at a crucial point. “We can allow the environmental crisis to take its course or recognize the problem now. Do something about it,” said Sip Smith, CEO of Sipri. “The bad news is that this extremely important moment comes at a time when international politics is in a terrible state.” The relations between the great powers are “poisonous, dangerous”, populism and nationalism are growing.
According to the report, armed conflicts doubled in the 2010s, involving at least one state, as well as the number of refugees and displaced people worldwide. After years of decline, the number of nuclear warheads operating in 2020 has increased again. Global military spending reached more than $ 2 trillion last year.
A transition to a “green economy”
At the same time, the report describes the alarming developments in the environment. About a quarter of all species are threatened with extinction. The number of pollinating insects is sharply decreasing. “Climate change is exacerbated by extreme weather events such as hurricanes and heat waves, reducing the frequency of potential food crops and increasing the risk of large-scale crop failure.” Politicians need to better assess the risks and resolutely address the fight against environmental crises.
Sipri researchers called for a rapid transition to a “green economy”, which must also be fair and peaceful. “In the event of such a major economic change, there are always winners and losers,” Smith said. “The interests of the people most affected by this transition must be taken into account. Otherwise, new risks of conflicts will arise. “
Therefore, researchers also want to give hope. “Mankind has the knowledge and skills to get out of the trouble we are in,” Smith said. But now steps must be taken. “Every day we procrastinate, the work becomes more difficult.”
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