According to the UN, on 15 November humankind will reach a demographic milestone. Yet, this conference doesn’t seem to be welcoming the new-born eight billionths with open arms.
NCEJ
Yesterday at COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, it was Water Day: a focus on the resource all life depends on, now that oceans and freshwater reserves are at risk for the climate crisis. Today though, on the United Nations’ calendar it will be the ’Day of Eight Billion’. According to demographic projections on 15 November, a new-born boy or girl will take humankind to a new population milestone.
‘This unprecedented growth’, the United Nations says, ‘is due to the gradual increase in human lifespan owing to improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine.’ Plus, it adds, high levels of fertility in some countries.
Of course, it could be easy to blame overpopulation for the climate crisis. There were three billion human beings swarming the planet in 1960. Now they are eight billion and they are consuming the planet’s resources at a pace never seen before. Yet, they do so at very different rates. The Global North is responsible for 92 per cent of excess CO2 or equivalents emissions; the Global South for the remaining eight per cent.
Of course, this multitude of people is behaving recklessly. It is estimated that 14.5 per cent of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions come from the swelling global livestock industry. It is a bigger share than the transport section, yet there is no mention of it in any climate agreement, let alone a ‘Meat Day’ during a climate summit. And that is just one example.
The UN reckons that, ‘while it took the global population 12 years to grow from seven to eight billion, it will take approximately 15 years – until 2037– for it to reach nine billion.’ In other words, population growth is slowing. A few decades ago demographers were projecting up to 16 billion people on Earth by 2100. Overpopulation is not the problem it used to be. It is a different one.
On one hand, the world has to drastically cut emissions by 2030 – as science recommends and as countries have pledged – while feeding and powering a growing number of people. On the other hand, some economies are desperate for a burst of growth before the population bubble bursts and they are left supporting an ageing population. It is estimated that population will peak in 2064 and decline thereafter, some countries (starting with China) are worried about the economic impact of such a prospect.
Source
News Agencies
